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About US

Company name

Musha Research Co., Ltd.

President

Ryoji Musha

Address

Postal code: 105-0021
901 Renai Partire Shiodome
2-18-3 Higashi-Shimbashi
Minato-ku, Tokyo  [ MAP ]

Contact

TEL 03-5408-6818
FAX 03-5408-6819

Date of establishment

1st Jul, 2009

Activities

Provision of research reports and other information for economic and financial market analysis and determination of medium and long-term outlooks

A message from Ryoji Musha

I have established Musha Research for the purpose of providing more direct assistance to individuals who wish to use my analysis and forecasts. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic, reaching conclusions based on our own beliefs, and using a viewpoint that incorporates history and a global perspective. Our research reports and other information will always reflect these principles. Musha Research will supply a constant stream of reports that use as the starting point discussions and theories concerning why past outlooks were right or wrong. I believe that this information will be useful to corporate executives as well as investors for gaining a better understanding of current economy and market trends and determining the best strategies for achieving their objectives.

Ryoji Musha President
Musha Research Co., Ltd.

Jul 2009

Established Musha Research Co., Ltd.
Advisor, Deutsche Securities Inc., Advisor, Deutsche Bank AG Tokyo Branch, Advisor, Deutsche Asset Management (Japan) Ltd.,

May 2005

Vice Chairman and Chief Investment Advisor of Deutsche Securities

Jan 1997

Joined the Research Department of Deutsche Securities as general manager and chief strategist

May 1993

Chief Analyst and General Manager of the Equity Research Department of Daiwa Institute of Research (DIR) Japan

Jan 1988

Chief Analyst and Research Director of DIR America for the US macro economy, micro economy, and financial markets

Mar 1973

Joined the Research Department of Daiwa Securities Co. as a sector analyst for the textiles, construction, real estate, automobile, and electronics sectors (In 1982, the Research Department of Daiwa Securities was reorganized as an independent entity that was renamed Daiwa Institute of Research in 1989.)

Mar 1973

Graduated from Yokohama National University with a major in economics

Mar 1968

Graduated from Nagano High School

Sep 1949

Born in Nagano Prefecture

• Ranked #1 in Japan equity strategy in the 2002 and 2003 Institutional Investor poll.
• Served as the head of the Overseas Section of the Cabinet's Economic Analysis Deliberation Team, a member of the Cabinet's International Economic Research Committee, a member of the Ministry of Finance's International Fund Flow Research Committee, and a member of the consulting committee of the Institute of Energy Economics
• Served as a part-time lecturer at the Economics Department of Shinshu University in 2002 (Course title: "Japanese economic theory and forecasting share prices in the practical economy")
• Currently serving as a Visiting Professor at Saitama University Graduate School.

Latest Reports

Members

Overview of Services

Top-down macroeconomic strategies

• Medium and long-term market forecasts based on global macroeconomic analysis and provision of asset allocation strategies (primarily for Japanese equities)
• Provision of database for establishment of global macroeconomic strategies
• Scenarios for the global economy and financial markets
• Investment ideas and key points based on qualitative analysis
• The Musha approach: Outstanding logic and complete independence

All Musha Research reports and other information reflect the principles of adhering to consistent logic, reaching conclusions based on our own beliefs, and using a viewpoint that incorporates history and a global perspective.

• Establish a hypothesis
  ⇒We retain a tight focus on establishing the most persuasive hypothesis based on global, long-term economic data and a historical perspective.
• Reach conclusions that include no speculation
  ⇒We use hypotheses to eliminate preconceptions and any conflicts of interest in order to create the most logical outlooks and strategies (solutions). Forecasts and investment strategies are revised only when a hypothesis has been revised. Adopting this approach ensures that all conclusions are firmly rooted in facts and logic (hypotheses), thus maintaining consistency and coherency.
• Use a checking process to rebuild hypotheses
  ⇒We use the accuracy of past forecasts to verify the persuasiveness and suitability of a hypothesis for the purpose of ensuring that we are always using the most persuasive hypotheses. We firmly believe that using past experiences, whether a success or failure, is vital to establishing the most persuasive hypotheses.

Past Investment Opinions of Ryoji Musha

1990-1999  /  Positive stance on the return to health of the U.S. economy and investing in U.S. equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

• Belief in the efficiency of the U.S. restructuring process and the faith of the U.S. public in capitalism that was behind this restructuring
• The power of the information revolution led by the United States

Since May 1999  /  Criticism of the “bubble economy” ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

Problems involving the U.S. Internet valuation bubble and the self-fulfilling increases in ROE backed by rising stock prices

1997-2002  /  Negative outlook for Japanese equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

• Large volume of hidden non-performing loans (financial assets that produce no cash flows) in the financial sector
• Decline in Japan’s global presence due to strengthening economies in other Asian countries
• Unreasonably high expectations for returns on investments

Oct. '02 - May '03  /  Switch to medium/long-term positive outlook for Japan ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

• Japanese government established an effective system to deal with non-performing loans
• Attractive valuations of Japanese equities

2005  /  Very positive stance regarding Japanese and U.S. equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

• Belief that the world was entering a golden age backed by globalization and the Internet revolution
• Extremely low valuations of Japanese equities

Since July 2007  /  Consistent positive outlook for Japanese equities ⇒ BIG MISTAKE

< Reasons >

• Failure to recognize the magnitude of financial crisis originating with subprime loans
• Inability to foresee the catastrophic breakdown in supply-demand that caused financial markets to collapse
• Failure to anticipate the destructive power of the market collapse and the speed at which the shock waves expanded; inadequate insight concerning the impact of the market collapse on the real economy

Since Mar. 2009  /  Start global equity bull market ⇒ Correct so far for US

< Reasons >

• Could not predict weakness of Japan equity with ext ream yen strength.
• Under estimate difficulty accompanied by secular turning period.

Changes in Investment Opinions

Stock market and Musha reports

Bulletin (Short Comment)

Key Strategy Issue (Long Comment)

Report download

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