Past Investment Opinions

1990-1999  /  Positive stance on the return to health of the U.S. economy and investing in U.S. equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

  1. Belief in the efficiency of the U.S. restructuring process and the faith of the U.S. public in capitalism that was behind this restructuring
  2. The power of the information revolution led by the United States

Since May 1999  /  Criticism of the “bubble economy” ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

Problems involving the U.S. Internet valuation bubble and the self-fulfilling increases in ROE backed by rising stock prices

1997-2002  /  Negative outlook for Japanese equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

  1. Large volume of hidden non-performing loans (financial assets that produce no cash flows) in the financial sector
  2. Decline in Japan’s global presence due to strengthening economies in other Asian countries
  3. Unreasonably high expectations for returns on investments

Oct. '02 - May '03  /  Switch to medium/long-term positive outlook for Japan ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

  1. Japanese government established an effective system to deal with non-performing loans
  2. Attractive valuations of Japanese equities

2005  /  Very positive stance regarding Japanese and U.S. equities ⇒ CORRECT

< Reasons >

  1. Belief that the world was entering a golden age backed by globalization and the Internet revolution
  2. Extremely low valuations of Japanese equities

Since July 2007  /  Consistent positive outlook for Japanese equities ⇒ BIG MISTAKE

< Reasons >

  1. Failure to recognize the magnitude of financial crisis originating with subprime loans
  2. Inability to foresee the catastrophic breakdown in supply-demand that caused financial markets to collapse
  3. Failure to anticipate the destructive power of the market collapse and the speed at which the shock waves expanded; inadequate insight concerning the impact of the market collapse on the real economy

Since Mar. 2009  /  Start global equity bull market ⇒ Correct so far for US

< Reasons >

  1. Could not predict weakness of Japan equity with ext ream yen strength
  2. Under estimate difficulty accompanied by secular turning period of US equity

Since Nov. 2012  /  Start Japan equity long-term bull market ⇒ orrect so far
< Reason >

  1. The shift in monetary policy ended  the Yen's strength and deflation

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