Feb 13, 2017

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Strategy Bulletin Vol.177

The true nature of the Trump administration – Imperialism, not protectionism
An offensive rather than defensive stance

The misunderstood Trump administration – Not isolationist, protectionist or discriminatory

The Trump administration has simple and very clear strategic objectives. First is making the United States strong. Second is making the world safe. Third is creating jobs in the United States. Fourth is eliminating unfairness standing in the way of accomplishing these goals. There are three types of unfairness: (a) small military expenditures by other countries and an inappropriate engagement  to other countries by the United States; (b) trade and industrial policies and foreign exchange policies that are harmful to the United States; and (c) unsuitable policies for immigration and refugees.

 

During the campaign, President Trump used the fourth objective of eliminating unfairness as his primary theme. Furthermore, the media, which generally do not like the president, completely overlooked the first three objectives. Media reports focused solely on his extreme statements regarding unfairness. These reports established a perception that does not match the real Trump administration. First, President Trump’s dissatisfaction with the current global military strategy is mistakenly viewed as isolationism. Second, his dissatisfaction with trade and industrial policies is mistakenly viewed as protectionism. Third, his dissatisfaction with immigration and refugee policies is mistakenly viewed as discrimination based on race and human rights.

 

Obviously, isolationism and protectionism would have precisely the opposite effect than what is required to accomplish the first three objectives (US strength, a safe world and a strong US job market). Moreover, radical discrimination could never take hold in the United States, the most democratic country in the world. As a result, we can expect to see the growth and evolution of the Trump administration’s policies and a correction in the media’s misinterpretation of these policies to bring about a rapid correction in the administration’s three negative perceptions: isolationism, protectionism and discrimination.

 

The strengthening of US external involvement has been confirmed

At the US-Japan summit meeting on February 10 and 11, President Trump stressed the importance of the Japan-US alliance. This stance contributed greatly to eliminating the misperception that the president is an isolationist who wants to reduce US involvement with other countries. The president’s plan to boost US military power to achieve peace through strength is in fact a stance for increasing involvement in external affairs. Furthermore, the Trump administration intends to correct unfairness that is harmful to US interests by using bilateral rather than multilateral trade negotiations. This is not protectionism. At the joint press conference with President Trump, Prime Minister Abe admirably made the following statement: “Never should a state-owned company, backed by state capital, make any economic intervention. Free rides on intellectual property should not be condoned.” Clearly, measures to correct unfair trade practices, where China is the biggest offender, are the exact opposite of protectionism.

 

The Trump administration wants to rebuild US imperialism

The widespread view of the election is that mounting dissatisfaction as the US economy weakened produced a populist administration. But now it’s time to correct this stereotypical thinking. Defense, protection and isolationism of a weak America are not the essence of the Trump administration. Instead, President Trump is taking an offensive stance for making superpower America stronger. This blatantly offensive posture explains why the president appears to be so overbearing.

 

President Trump believes that the world became more dangerous and US economic and military power declined significantly during the eight years of the Obama administration. If this has impacted the US job market as well, then the framework must be altered to make it stronger. Isn’t rebuilding US imperialism the best way to express this goal of the Trump administration? Today, the meaning of imperialism differs greatly from the prewar days when countries ruled colonies. The modern definition is an explicit national strategy in which the ability to greatly influence external events is used to further a country’s own interests. Only the United States and China have the potential to aim for this type of imperialism.

 

An empire is divided into two parts: the core region within the home country and the peripheral regions beyond the country’s borders. Each is clearly superior or inferior to the other in different ways. The core region is superior in terms of value systems and economic and military power. Imperialism logic says that it is proper for the core to have one-sided influence over the peripheral regions. It is wrong to conclude that President Trump has no strategies simply because he did not talk about values or a global strategy in his inauguration address. The president has a clearly defined understanding of US superiority and is dedicated to preserving and enhancing that superiority. This view differs dramatically from the Obama administration’s belief that the United States should stop being the world’s police officer and work with other countries to oversee a global commonwealth.

 

Returning to the Pax-Americana era – A strong dollar will be in the best interests of the United States

The question is whether or not President Trump’s imperialistic ambitions are correct and if the president can accomplish his goals. If this stance is correct, we should conclude that the goals are within reach. The Middle East is infested with terrorists that answer to no government. China and North Korea are bolstering their military strength. And state capitalism is distorting the foundation for global trade. Problems like these demonstrate the global need for an imperial America that can function as the police for protecting democracy in the world. Moreover, as I have explained in previous strategy bulletins, the economic base for creating an imperial America has never been stronger.

 

The competitive superiority of US industries has reached an unprecedented level because of the overwhelming competitive advantage the United States has involving infrastructure for the Internet. Earnings of companies (the ability of companies to create value) as well have never been higher. This gives the United States a more than adequate financial foundation for serving as the world’s police force. The Trump administration wants to use bilateral negotiations to establish discipline for international trade. Although this appears to be protectionism, it is nothing more than a means of making the industrial base of an already strong United States even more powerful. In other words, this should be viewed as an offensive and imperialistic stance. Obviously, a strong dollar will be both consistent and vital with regard to President Trump’s imperialistic ambitious. Some people believe the Trump administration wants a weaker dollar due to its protectionist stance. But this view will have to be corrected eventually.

 

A favorable environment for Japan of historic proportions

At their recent meeting, President Trump, who wants to restore American imperialism, and Prime Minister Abe established a remarkably close relationship. Japan’s prolonged period of prosperity in the modern era was backed by geopolitical forces. Capitalism first emerged in Japan during the Meiji and Taisho eras (Japan-UK alliance). Next was a period of economic stagnation starting in the mid-1920s and then economic collapse due to World War II. Japan then staged a miraculous and prolonged economic revival between about 1950 and 1990 (Japan-US alliance). An extended period with no economic growth began in 1990 when the cold war ended. In every one of these phases, Japan’s destiny was determined by its positioning in relation to the world’s superpowers and geopolitical forces.

 

Conflict between the United States and China is likely to increase. If the Trump administration implements policies to contain China, the alliance with Japan will become the most valuable bilateral relationship of all for the United States. As American imperialism grows under the leadership of the Trump administration, Japan is likely to start benefiting from a favorable environment of historic proportions.

 

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